We are nearing the final stages of the first phase of the hostage deal.
Israel has received the bodies of 4 of those murdered in captivity by Hamas – the 2 Bibas children, Kfir and Ariel, as well as their mother Shiri, and 84 year old Oded Lifshitz.
All taken from their homes in Nir Oz on 7 October.
That will leave 4 more deceased hostages and 6 alive (expected to be released Saturday), to complete this initial phase.
The price Israel has paid is very high, however it is fair to say that as the releases have continued, Israeli public opinion, also amongst Likud supporters, has swung much more dramatically in favour of continuing even this bad deal, in order to see the return of the remaining hostages.
At the conclusion of phase one, Hamas will still hold 59 hostages, of whom 35 are declared deceased and with uncertainty about the health of the others.
Phase two however, will require a much steeper price from Israel, looking likely to include a departure from the Philadelphi corridor, and a long term cessation of hostilities in Gaza, with a high degree of possibility that Hamas will remain in Gaza, playing a greater or lesser role there.
Paradoxically, Prime Minister Netanyahu, seems to be going into these second phase discussions with little hesitation.
It goes against his own declared war aims and threatens the survival of his coalition.
The question is, why? And why now?
Netanyahu is navigating inside in a complex reality.
He has the Gilad Shalit deal on his record, his policies on Hamas containment leading up to 7 October and the fact that 7 October took place on his watch. At the same time, he must get credit, along with the IDF, for the changed situation in Israel’s position vis a vis the surrounding neighbourhood.
He also has his coalition difficulties, on the one hand with those Zionist parties to his right and on the other, with his Haredi coalition partners regarding army service, or at least some form of national service.
As if this was not complicated enough, looming over the whole situation is the unpredictable President Trump.
So far, Trump has given Israel a blank cheque when it comes to Gaza, albeit one that Israel has not taken up, but which Trump to date has seemingly been comfortable with, at least for now.
As per the agreement with Lebanon, Israel withdrew from Lebanon on Tuesday, Trump not granting Israel any further extensions, but allowing Israel to retain 5 outposts on the Lebanese side of the border.
The Lebanese army has moved into the south of Lebanon. How effective they will be re Hezbollah, remains to be seen.
Another complicating factor is that Netanyahu knows that Trump likes a strong man and a winner, and that he does not tolerate weakness.
So, is going ahead with the slower paced phased hostage deal weakness, or strength?
Netanyahu well remembers that after Trump in his first term took out Soleimani and the Israelis pulled out of the operation, Trump said: “They didn’t tell us why. I’ll never forget that Bibi Netanyahu let us down. We were disappointed by that. Very disappointed.”
Trump has made many senior appointments of people around him who are strongly pro-Israel, with the person currently seemingly in the most important and influential role being Steven Witkoff.
Witkoff is the lead negotiator on the hostage deal and is very publicly committed to the second phase negotiations, with the prime aim of getting the remaining hostages out.
Trump resumed the delivery of the 2,000lb bombs to Israel that were used to take out Nasrallah for example, but to date no American president (including Trump) has allowed Israel to have the 30,000lb bombs, thought necessary to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
There is also some question as to whether Israel has the capacity and planes required to carry such bombs, or not.
When Witkoff was asked if the US would now supply Israel with these larger bunker busters, he was not clear either way and deftly avoided further questions on the matter.
So again, why is Netanyahu going along so readily with this second phase and why now?
For the moment we are moving into the realm of pure speculation.
One possible reason is that not with standing whatever deal is agreed, Netanyahu already has the green light from Trump, and the diplomatic cover, to take on Hamas full bore, after the hostages are returned.
This would also keep Smotrich in the coalition and possibly see Ben Gvir return, giving Netanyahu back his comfortable Knesset majority.
A second reason could be a trade-off, to do with some arrangement with Saudi Arabia.
Here, the Saudi’s are more interested in a security deal with the US, than they are in movement on the Palestinian cause, which means that the US would be paying the price for any such deal.
However, with the increasing numbers of coffins returning from Gaza and with the plight of the living hostages traumatising the entire nation, the majority of the population would not accept a deal of this nature without the removal of Hamas as a future threat.
So, in these times, even such a momentous move on the Saudi front in the absence of a resolution in Gaza, would be unlikely to save the Netanyahu government from going to elections.
Which brings us, again purely speculatively, to consider that Trump has promised Netanyahu something historic on the Iranian front.
Something big enough that he can absorb short term political pain, understanding that it will count for little once Iran’s nuclear program has been dealt with.
Netanyahu sees himself as going down in history as the prime minister who saved Israel from Iran. He has often stated that this is his life’s mission.
Against this is Trump’s vow that the US will: “measure our success not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end. And, perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into.”
Iran is at the weakest point militarily and economically it has been in decades.
Arguably, action now could deter war later on.
Interestingly, we are approaching Purim in 3 weeks.
Purim celebrates the deliverance of the Jewish people from the evil Haman in the days of Queen Esther of Persia.
Am Yisrael Chai
Dr Ron Weiser AM
