We are in a very strange period of time.
Phase 1 of the hostage release is concluded.
This leaves 59 hostages in the brutal hands of Hamas and the so-called good residents of Gaza, of whom 35 are confirmed deceased.
Phase 2, which was meant to include negotiations for the release of the rest of hostages, an end to war and some resolution of Gaza’s future, have not yet begun.
And yet we are in a sort of no man’s land of a ceasefire, but with no concurrent hostage release.
Hamas in effect, has managed to have the ceasefire extended for now, at no cost.
Israel is out of the Netzarim corridor and Hamas demonstrates its leadership role in Gaza each night during the Ramadan feasting.
For Prime Minister Netanyahu, it will be very difficult to survive politically if he does not both free the remaining hostages and ensure Hamas do not remain a force in Gaza.
President Trump who seems to conduct American policy by chaotic megaphone events at press conferences, is unpredictable and no-one, perhaps even himself, really knows when he is stating an ambit claim, or a red line.
A thought bubble or a considered policy.
Having said that, what is also true is that on the hostage issue Trump has been clear, consistent and genuinely distressed at their situation. To the point that the families of the hostages actually trust the US President more than their own Prime Minister on this matter.
Israel is watching the Ukraine situation closely in order to avoid following in its footsteps.
There are many differences.
Superficial it may be, but important none the less, Netanyahu is a master at understanding the US and its citizens and he wears a suit and speaks excellent English.
Perhaps more importantly, Ukraine is facing a superior force and Trump sees defeat or compromise as inevitable for Ukraine.
However, when it comes to Trump’s views on Israel, he sees Israel as the superior force and actually holding more of the cards.
Importantly, Trump has surrounded himself with appointees and advisers who have a deep history of support for Israel not just strategically, but also fundamentally.
Trump has given Israel, or more specifically Netanyahu, a “free hand,” with the understanding that whatever Israel does to free the hostages and remove Hamas, will have military and diplomatic cover from the US.
Of course, the worry is that freeing the hostages and removing Hamas requires a price. From the one, or the other.
And Netanyahu has chosen to move cautiously, so as not to end up achieving neither.
The factors for Israel are that whilst the US “blank cheque” is in indeed remarkable, the hostages have limited time as they are being abused and starved, whilst Trump has limited patience.
Slow action by Israel may lead to serious consequences and/or the Americans taking the process over.
Witkoff has adjusted the deal, without Hamas’ agreement as yet, trying to implement a Phase 1 Mark 2 arrangement, whilst Trump’s Ambassador for Hostages, Adam Boehler, has surprised everyone by meeting directly with Hamas. A first.
Boehler gave some disastrous and contradictory interviews last weekend, once the direct meeting/s became known, including, disappointingly, speaking about the differences between US and Israeli interests.
As I have often written during these times, the danger for Israel is that if it leaves a vacuum, others will step in with ideas that may or may not be positive for Israel.
Which undermines the whole aim of the Zionist project being about self-determination.
Unlike Trump who was recently re-elected with a clear mandate, Netanyahu faces constant pressures for the survival of his own government.
These are a distraction from the main game, whilst simultaneously being tied right in.
The big coalition priority for Netanyahu, is the need to pass the budget by the end of March. If not, the government will fall and Israel will head to elections.
Two main issues will affect this; the Haredi threat to not support the budget unless IDF exemptions are legislated; and the Smotrich and Ben Gvir demand to renter Gaza in full military combat to remove Hamas, whatever that may mean for the remaining hostages.
In parallel, the government is ramping up its campaign of the highly divisive judicial reforms.
Trust between the legislative and judicial arms of Israel’s democracy has completely broken down.
One reason Netanyahu resists a state inquiry is because traditionally, they are run by judges. And he does not think he will get a fair go from them.
Moreover, there is generally, a deepening schism between those elected and those appointed.
Rumours in the Israeli press are rife about Netanyahu demanding the resignation of the head of the Shabak (Internal Security Agency) Ronen Bar, after he produced a report, in part blaming October 7 on Netanyahu’s policies – with suggestions that Bar refused to resign.
Which, if true, would be somewhat absurd, as either the government has confidence in its appointee, or not.
Decisive action is called for by Netanyahu for the sake of the population’s confidence. Either sack Bar and replace him, or express public confidence in the security service, whose role is to underpin Israel’s security.
Another appointee under government attack is Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara, who the government claims it is trying to replace.
What the government has done is to change the leadership of the hostage negotiating team from security officials, to the political echelon.
Netanyahu’s closest political confidante, Ron Dermer, now leads discussions with Witkoff et al.
This week we celebrate Purim which took place approximately 2,500 years ago.
A time when the wisdom of Mordechai and the bravery of Esther, saved the Jewish people from the Persian aims of annihilation.
Today a united Israel, with the wisdom of its leaders, can do the same and more.
Am Yisrael Chai.
